Emil Avdaliani：The New Crisis in the Middle East in the Age of Chaos

【明報文章】The war between Israel and Hamas which engulfed whole of Gaza strip has shown growing risks evolving into a regional conflagration. This might happen but what is clear is that the war takes place against the background of the shifts which have taken place in the configuration of global power balance. Moreover, the conflict will likely hasten the ongoing changes.

More concretely the war signals the evolving nature of the US posture in the Middle East. With the war in Ukraine likely to continue for the foreseeable future and the US-China competition expanding across the globe, the instability in the Middle East is both a symptom of US distraction and a major sign that a new American approach to the region is long overdue.

Consequently, given the US’ distractions, the war in Gaza presents a precious opportunity for major Eurasian powers to fill in the power vacuum. Russia is especially interested. Its invasion of Ukraine solidified the Western unity. Both NATO and EU are now stronger in both their policy vision toward Russia and in the urge to strengthen the trans-Atlantic unity.

This worries Russia which seeks potential avenues for limiting the Western pressure. In Moscow’s thinking a major conflict elsewhere, preferably in Eurasia, would distract the collective West, especially the US by diverting its military and diplomatic resources.

Similar thinking is likewise prevalent in Iran’s outlook. The war in Gaza, in Tehran’s perspective, could hasten the end of US prestige among the Gulf countries and potentially even sip its military strength.

Yet, Iran is aiming at something else. Ever since the famous Abraham Accords have been reached under Donald Trump’s presidency, Israel and Saudi Arabia have been suspected of gradually moving toward major improvement of bilateral ties. The success was contingent upon the list of conditions laid out by Saudi Arabia for the US. Those included a transfer of civilian nuclear capabilities and ever closer security ties between Riyadh and Washington. Hints in the media signalled that both sides were making significant success seemingly at the expense of the Palestinian cause for independence and the two-state solution. The timing for the escalation around Gaza indicates that it was no less meant to scupper the emerging rapprochement between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

Iran must be joyous. Indeed, as a result of the ongoing war, Saudi Arabia has reportedly stopped the peace process with Israel. Moreover, in an ironic twist of events, Iran and Saudi Arabia now tout similar views when it comes to professing their support for the Palestinian cause and criticizing Israel.

To be sure Saudi Arabia will remain highly self-interested. The war in Gaza will pass, the kingdom’s interests such as obtaining security guarantees from the US will remain. So will the need to co-exist with Israel and Saudi Arabia’s lessened but nevertheless longer-term geopolitical rivalry.

There is also China which cautiously but attentively is watching the Middle East where Beijing’s diplomatic clout has increased with the facilitation of rapprochement back in March between the long-time rivals, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

For China, the war between Israel and Hamas underscores the inefficiency of the peace process. Longer term, Beijing considers the war as yet another possibility which could distract the US and its allies. Coupled with the war in Ukraine a region-wide instability in the Middle East could deviate America’s attention from the Indo-Pacific region and therefore present China with greater room for menauver.

It is unclear how long the war in Gaza will continue but its effects are clear. Israel and Palestinian authorities will now have much fewer, if any, reason to seek diplomatic solution. The war has also opened the door for major Eurasian actors to drive a wedge between the US and the Arab countries. Moreover, the conflict cannot be properly analysed if seen detached from a number of major shifts taking place across the Middle East. A series of rapprochements between Iran and the Arab countries and the recalibration of the US foreign policy coupled with the ongoing war in Ukraine put additional pressure on the already meagre chances of Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation.

Emil Avdaliani is a professor at European University and a scholar of silk roads.

[Emil Avdaliani]