Emil Avdaliani：Major Escalation Between Israel and Iran Could Evolve Into a Major War

【明報文章】The Middle East has turned into a powder keg. In early April Israel bombed a consular residence of the Islamic Republic of Iran in Damascus killing seven Iranian high-level military officials. Tehran vowed to retaliate as the attack crossed established international laws and non-written red lines which have so far maintained rules of the game between the two historical rivals.

Tehran indeed responded by launching a massive wave of drones and missiles on April 13. Usually the Islamic Republic has avoided directly engaging Israel as it was fraught with the risks of wider conflagration involving the United States. The April 14 attack does not quite fit into a manner in which the Islamic Republic generally operates. Iran bides its time and waits for a right moment to strike indirectly as it fits the moment. Iran usually plays a long game. It clearly sees how the attack on the consulate has garnered pro-Iranian sentiments among major players such as China and Russia. Moreover, solidarity with Iran has also filtered through the Arab world – criticism of Israel has grown and the calls for ending the war in Gaza intensified.

When it came to challenging Israel and the U.S. Iran mostly relied on the Axis of Resistance – loose network of militarized groups funded or associated with Iran. Tehran pushed Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis and the military groups in Iraq to act more in concert in hitting enemy positions across the Middle East or elsewhere or resorted to effective cyber operations.

Now however these rules of the shadow game have changed since Iran directly bombed Israel and the fear of potential regional war with Washington’s likely involvement has, if not completely, then certainly diminished. From now on Tel-Aviv and Tehran will have greater freedom to directly target each other. This mode of confrontation might not entirely fit into Iran’s strategic thinking thinking of gradually diluting Washington’s alliances and military presence in the Middle East. This strategy was effective and Tehran has indeed scored numerous points against the U.S. in the Middle East.

The attack on Iran’s consulate and Tehran’ retaliatory onslaught would only strengthen its still ongoing rapprochement with Saudi Arabia. Though many doubted how viable this normalization of ties between erstwhile enemies would be, it now seems to weather regional tensions and is on its way to full blossoming of bilateral ties. Iran and Saudi Arabia now happen to share similar visions on more than a few issues and learned to downplay existing differences.

The attack on Israel poses significant problems for the United States. Traditionally, Washington has been interested in avoiding a major war in the Middle East especially amid Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. Large conflagration would only push the U.S. to interfere, the scenario its leadership wants to avoid. Indeed, amid the grinding war in Ukraine and the expanding competition with China, Washington wants to avoid geopolitical distractions. Dilution of its power across various regions would only undermine the U.S.’ ability to maintain its position in Eurasia.

Whether Iran and Israel enter an open and direct confrontation mode or prefer to stick to the previous mode of rivalry, the overall trajectory in the Middle East indicates that the region is heading toward further intensification of competition and even outright enmity bordering on a full scale war. Rules of game are quickly changing and the traditional enemies (such as Iran and Israel) are now increasingly less obliged to follow unwritten rules which helped them maintain a certain balance. This in turn invites chaos and Tehran has proved to be quite agile at taking advantages from instability in the Middle East.

In the longer run, the Israeli strikes against Iran and the latter’s most recent response fit into an overall instability in the Middle East. With Israel remaining adamant in its hardline approach toward Gaza the division between the Jewish state and the Arab countries as well as the US and its partners among the Gulf continues.

Whatever the developments in the Middle East, the U.S. which has been slowly recalibrating its foreign policy away from the Middle East and more toward eastern Europe and the Indo-Pacific region, will now be forced to rethink this approach. The Middle East might not be a centerstage within the unfolding global competition, but developments there could have a ripple effect on other regions. Washington cannot allow it to happen but it is increasingly forced to grapple with the reality where simultaneous tensions from Ukraine to Gaza to Indo-Pasific all constrain the U.S. capabilities.

Emil Avdaliani is a professor of international relations at European University in Tbilisi, Georgia.