Emil Avdaliani：A Year of Growing Uncertainties in the Middle East

【明報文章】One year has passed since Hamas’ attack on Israel and the latter’s retaliatory military campaign in Gaza which has now spilled over into the southern Lebanon and risks bringing about a regional conflagration. This same year has also changed how the Middle East is perceived.

The war has strengthened the Middle East’s strategic importance. Often viewed as no longer a critical region due to the United States’ looming recalibration of its foreign policy toward the Indo-Pacific region and Ukraine, the Middle East was expected to lose its geopolitical prominence. The war in Gaza and now in Lebanon coupled with Iran’s two bombing of Israel (in April and October) proved this thinking wrong. Indeed, since October 2023 Washington has increased its military presence in the region, ratcheted up support for Israel, and engaged diplomatically its Arab allies and partners.

Moreover, other major powers – China and Russia – have likewise attempted to elevate their respective positions. Beijing ventured diplomatically to portray itself as a real peacemaker between Israelis and Palestinians, while Russians solidified their ties with the Islamic Republic and other Persian Gulf states. The Middle East is thus back on agenda with little hope of conflict resolution in the near future.

Indeed, Israel has hit Hamas hard and nearly decapitated it. It has also significantly weakened Hezbollah by decimating members of its high level command structure. But Israel is no way near completion of its longer term strategic goals. Both Hamas and Hezbollah and especially the latter continue to exist, and will need only a brief breathing space to reconstitute their powers.

The two groups are first of all social and nationalist movements fed by animosity toward Israel and the collective West. They would not disappear even if Israel claims their complete defeat. They would likely be easily replaced by new movements to oppose the Jewish state. Therefore, for Israel the past year has produced more uncertainties about the future trajectory of their military campaigns and indeed the country’s position in the region.

Israel has had similar experience in Lebanon before when despite an overwhelming military power, the country has failed to resolve the “Hezbollah problem”. Every time Israel invaded its northern neighbor it had to retreat thereby inadvertently helping the “Party of God” to evolve into a more powerful entity. This latest invasion would likely end with similar results. Israel will remain a powerful state militarily with overwhelming capacity but still short of completely transforming the threat dynamic around itself. Hamas and Hezbollah will remain Israel’s major enemies and their vision of the struggle with the Jewish state will continue to be teleological where the latter’s destruction is a foregone conclusion irrespective of defeats the Arabs have to endure along the way.

Yet the past year has been tough for Iran too. Before October 2023 Tehran managed to advance its position in Syria and Lebanon, and especially Iraq. The US troops were on the cusp of if not leaving the region altogether then certainly dramatically diminishing their engagement. Israel itself was hampered by internal political difficulties and Tel-Aviv’s relations with the US also experienced instability due to Benjamin Netanyahu’s, the country’s PM, venture to build closer ties with China. Had Hamas abstained from attacking Israel, Iran might have achieved its long-cherished dream of America’s phased withdrawal.

By October 2024 and it is clear that the Islamic Republic has entered one of the most challenging periods in its foreign policy. There is no existential threat to the country, but its entire forward-defense strategy built around the Axis of Resistance – a sprawling network of militarized groups across the Middle East – has come under intense pressure. Tehran will now have to reconsider the basics of its long held strategy and pour additional resources into reinventing the badly hurt Hamas and Hezbollah.

This also tells something about the Middle East. The latter remains a highly fractured region. And it is not only about sectarian divisions but more so geopolitical ones. None of the regional actors can claim superiority allowing for a certain balance between the actors. Yet it is these very circumstances which have created fertile ground for intervention from the outside great powers.

Emil Avdaliani is a professor of international relations at European University in Tbilisi, Georgia.

[Emil Avdaliani]